Where the damage sits today
Each block is a plant, sized by capacity and coloured by the share of that capacity out of action on the as-of date, derived from the anchor and the recorded strikes. Grey is running; the deeper the red, the more is out.
Strikes against repairs
From the anchor to twelve months ahead, in the capacity chosen above. Red is capacity knocked out, cumulative; green is capacity brought back by repair, cumulative; the thick line is what is out of action at each date, the difference between them plus what was already out at the anchor. To the left of today the strikes are recorded and the repairs are modelled; to the right both are the forecast at the observed tempo. Each dot is a recorded strike, sized by what it took out.
Damaging events, June to August 2026
Entries added here are marked "local": they appear in this table and in the charts for you, and become part of the published record when the author adds them. Send the JSON or the Excel file.
One row per documented unit stop or capacity loss at a named plant. Attributions marked inferred are reconstructions: most reporting says a fire near a unit, not a unit destroyed.
How evidence is graded
Every row below carries one of these tiers. They are used the same way throughout the lab.
Events counted in the strike rate but not as damaging
A log that shows only what it accepted cannot be audited for selection, so the exclusions are listed with their reason.
Published aggregates, and why they disagree
Each of these counts a different object: strikes against refineries only, strikes against refineries and terminals together, individual drone impacts, or strike events. None of them is a damaging-hit count, which is what the model needs, so the count below was built at the event level instead.