Is this structural or cyclical
Crude capacity churns: it is hit, repaired in weeks, and comes back. The high-octane chain does not, because reforming has no proven domestic substitute at the modern end and parts arrive at a production rate rather than a lead time. When these two series separate and stay separated, the shortage is structural.
Who is fed, and at what level
Tiers 1 and 2 are absolute claims: the state serves them first and in full while anything is left. Tiers 3 and 4 share the remainder with ordinary retail, pro rata. Ladder, widget 1.3.
Regions
Provisional demand shares. Product moves only between adjacent regions, at most 70% of a region's supply leaves it, and only Moscow may draw from anywhere. Volume is conserved: what the shield keeps, other regions lose.
Repair chain, spares and maintenance
A hit is not repaired from a warehouse. Each unit class has a national pool of spare sets; once it is empty, the next repair waits for manufacture and grey import. Deferred turnarounds raise the chance of unplanned stops until the winter wave runs them.
What moves the number
Ledger for the selected horizon, kt per week
Beyond repair at this horizon
Who pays
Starting state
Refinery registry
Anchored constants
Movable only inside a published range. Constants marked unsourced are judgments, not measurements. Override them through the scenario JSON with a source; the override is listed in the passport.
The receipt
Computed from the ledger this scenario produces, cumulative to each date, in billions of roubles. Every line is reproducible from the ledger CSV.
Second-order consequences
Order-of-magnitude bands intended to show relative size, not estimates. Where a number could be computed it is in the receipt above; everything here is deliberately left in bands.
Scenario passport
Everything a reader needs to reproduce or dispute this scenario. It travels with every export.